Valuation Calculator
Inputs are auto-filled with past data. Adjust them to your growth expectations.
Valuation metric
Earnings growth
5y CAGR 10%
Shares growth
5y CAGR -0.5%
P/E Ratio at sale
Current: 38
Target rate of return
Starting Values
Starting EPS
Based on the current 2.63% Earnings Yield
Starting Dividend
Based on the current 1.40% Dividend Yield
Calculation timeframe
5 year value
$ 518
Fair value today
$ 321
Current price
$ 589.65
Calculator Metrics
Free Cash Flow
Ideal to use as it represents the cash available to investors. But can be volatile making it hard to find a good starting value.
Net Income
Often more stable compared to FCF. Represents profit left over after all expenses are paid for. Including non-cash expenses.
Operating Cash Flow
Same as FCF, but without subtracting CapEx. Use if FCF is negative / missing. Also okay to use if the company is CapEx light.
Operating Income
Usually the most stable metric. Like net income but without interest, taxes, and one-off expenses. Represents the core operations of the company. Use if net income is volatile.
Calculator Inputs
Metric Growth
The yearly growth for the selected metric. Growth usually slows down as the company gets bigger. Also consider if margins will change, and the current rate of inflation.
Shares Growth
Accounts for share buybacks or dilution. -1% here actually translates to a per share growth of slightly more than 1%.
Price ratio at sale
This effects the sale price when theoretically selling after x years. It is common to use a value lower than the 5 year historical average. See the historical price ratio chart above.
Target rate of return
The return you are aiming for on your investments. Will be used for finding the fair value and for dividend investment returns. Keep at 10% if unsure.
Fair Value Calculation
1. The calculated per share growth rate is 6%
2. Dividends are reinvested with a 10% annual return, collecting in total $ 60.58
3. After 5 years the stock is sold at a 22 P/E for $ 456.94
4. The total value is now $ 517.52. To get a compound annual growth rate of 10% the sum is discounted each year back to today.
5. This gives UnitedHealth stock a fair value of $ 321.34 today, a downside of 45.5% to the current price
Why Use The Valuation Calculator
The calculator is your friendly companion helping you stay cool in a market saturated with headlines and fomo.
It can help you stay grounded by displaying how much growth a company actually needs to reach your desired return.
This tool is simple and only uses the numbers shown. It is meant to give a rough estimate and does not take into account risks, such as new competition or geopolitical events.
You need to find the risks that apply to your company and add a margin of safety accordingly.